[Salon] No boom in jobs for Trump's base

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

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No boom in jobs for Trump's base

One year into his presidency, Trump's promise of "millions and millions of blue-collar jobs" is a bust

Washington Monthly and Anne Kim

Feb 22

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Credit: Associated Press

Stronger than expected jobs numbers have the White House crowing about a booming Trump economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy added 130,000 jobs in January, which Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer claimed as “proof that President Trump’s America First policies are working their magic.”

“Magic”? Make that sleight-of-hand.

Other numbers released by BLS betray a labor market that’s shaky at best, especially for the workers Trump claims to champion. The “millions and millions of blue-collar jobs” Trump promised have yet to materialize. In fact, they continue to vanish.

First, it’s important to point out, as other analysts have noted, that the January jobs number was accompanied by a massive downward revision in job creation for 2025, from 584,000 job created to a scant 181,000. This terrific chart from MS Now’s Steve Benen puts this new number in context.

Second, almost all of the jobs created in January were in just two sectors, healthcare (82,000 jobs) and social assistance, e.g., therapists, counselors, and social workers (42,000 jobs created). Both sectors are facing massive cuts, thanks to the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed last summer, which includes more than $800 billion in cuts to Medicaid over the next ten years, along with drastic reductions in other social programs. These job gains, in other words, may not last long.

Now the bad news for Trump’s base:

• Manufacturing jobs aren’t growing. Despite Trump’s promises to make America a “manufacturing powerhouse” again, manufacturing employment in January was still below what it was at its 10-year peak in January 2023 (during Biden’s presidency). Manufacturing added 5,000 jobs in January, bringing total manufacturing employment to 12.59 million (compared to 12.9 million in January 2023).

• Coal mining jobs aren’t growing either. As much as Trump extols “beautiful clean coal,” the jobs just aren’t returning. Coal mining employed just 39,500 people in January, down from 42,300 in January 2024. And to the extent the United States expands coal production, robots will likely do the mining. As far back as ten years ago, reports the Brookings Institution, automated mines in Wyoming were producing four times the coal of West Virginia, but with far fewer people. That trend will only accelerate.

• Fewer white men are working. Trump has failed to arrest the slide in labor force participation by white men, which peaked at 88 percent in 1956. In January 2026, the labor force participation rate by white men over age 20 was 69.6 percent, down from 69.9 percent in January 2025. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for this group rose from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent (seasonally adjusted). And despite the Trump administration’s claims of a surge in work for “American-born” workers as a result of its deportation campaign, the unemployment rate for native-born men (of all races) rose in the past year, from 4.7 percent in January 2025 to 5.0 percent in January 2026. (See also this great early post from Jed Kolko debunking the White House’s claims.)

It’s not hard to divine why Trump’s economic policies have failed to deliver for his base. His tariffs, for instance, are doing more to suppress US manufacturing than to encourage it. Even the US Chamber of Commerce—typically a stalwart Republican ally—put out a series of reports last fall complaining about the tariffs’ impact on US manufacturers. Deportations shrink economic and job growth too, when there are fewer people working to contribute to the economy or who are available to buy goods and services. In a December 2024 analysis, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee estimated that fulfilling Trump’s goal of mass deportations could diminish US GDP by as much as 7.4 percent by 2028.

January’s job numbers are a testament to the US economy’s resilience despite the assault from Trump’s policies. But as Trump continues to pursue his economic follies, don’t expect our luck to hold out.